gold, oil, dollars, yen

the stars aligned a bit for me today. late yesterday afternoon i was playing warcraft and watching the imac screen that of late is constantly streaming currency prices at me. the USD/JPY pair was looking overvalued, and even though i had been waiting for a price of 119, i decided to short the dollar at 118.53. the price fell to 118, and i was in good profit territory. i put in a stop loss and went to sleep around 12:30.

i woke up at 4:30 and turned on the laptop in bed. the dollar was cratering. i was waiting for the release of the TICS report for last month, a measurement of foreign interest in US treasuries. i was almost certain the number was going to reflect waning interest, with countries like the UAE diversifying out of dollar reserves, the repatriation of yen for the end of the japanese fiscal year at the end of the month, and just the general negative gloomy bias that surrounds the buck these days. i was wrong, the number was pretty strong. i traded out of the position at 117.94. (this deserves a serious caveat: i am at a net loss since i started trading currency. i regard the cash that i put into this account as speculative, meaning i can lose it and not cry too much. i regard the losses the i have incurred as an education, because you often have to feel real pain, anxiety, and the fear of loss to learn anything of value. trading the spot market in currency is largely what might be considered a racket, in that the odds are stacked overwhelmingly in favor of the house, in other words, your broker).

around 6 AM, news on two of my other holdings came in. gold gapped up at the opening. and penn west announced it was buying petrofund canada (i own PTF). on top of that, oil closed at $70.40, a record high. by 7 AM i was on my bike riding over to peet’s and the post office on solano to file my taxes and the partnership taxes for our investment club. the post office didn’t open until 9, so i sat out in the morning sun reading. one thing i did learn in doing my own taxes this year is that the ETF that i have used as a proxy for holding physical gold is going to be taxed as a collectible rather than an equity. which translates as a rate of up to 28% as opposed to say 5% for long term capital gains. which also translates as “sucks shit in comparison”.

most days are not this good. and i should add the disclaimer that nothing in this post is to be construed as advice. even if you read this and think “haller’s an idiot, i am going to do the opposite”. but it felt like the gods were smiling on me this morning. to say nothing of the rush and relief of putting all those envelopes in the mail. tomorrow, i am sure to be handed my ass for feeling this good today.






One response to “gold, oil, dollars, yen”

  1. Jondi Avatar

    monkeys. darts. can we beat that? 😉

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