king of the mountain

i guess it just makes sense, under the current administration, that exxon/mobil today replaced GE as the world’s most valuable company. there are any number of things i could say here, but i am too busy salivating at the strength of the dollar against the costa rican colon, and the OUTRAGEOUS real estate opportunities down there. if i had to make a prediction for 2005 right now, it would be that we will be having a going-away party for me at some point in the near future. the idea of blogging from paradise, strumming my guitar on a tropical beach, all for about a third of my expenses currently…let’s just say it has me thinking A LOT. let’s see: fixer-upper trailer-home in a cracked out richmond neighborhood, or 3 bedroom house in the middle of a lush tropical jungle. hmmmm.
and no, i am not linking to any of the things i am looking at.
the other thing i am thinking about today is inverted yield curves. i am just learning about this, but it refers to the situation we find ourselves in, which alan greenspan called a “conundrum” the other day when pressed for an answer. it is the anomalous condition when long-term yields are lower than short-term ones. the fed has been ratcheting up the overnight bank rate, and yet the long term and mortgage interest rates haven’t responded. phil and i were talking the other night about why this is the case, who is buying the securitized mortgages and keeping the skin on the real estate bubble intact. the fact that it doesn’t make sense to the chairman of the federal reserve doesn’t make me feel all that comfortable, although it is why i have not gotten into real estate (in retrospect my timing has been off, and i probably should have reaped the benefits of this bizarre housing market). the condition of inverse yield curves is an accurate predictor of a coming recession (for example, in february 2000), and the fact that metal (i.e. gold) stocks have been heating up also has me concerned. japan and germany and italy are also on my watchlists.
the bottom line is that i could be doing all this from anyplace on the face of the planet where i have a broadband connection. it sure as fuck might as well be warm.